000 AXNT20 KNHC 171741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW- AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE INDICATED ON 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 15W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS SUPPORTING A 997 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY NEAR 30N105W. ONGOING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF IS LIKELY FUELING THE CONVECTION WITH MOIST MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N72W TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N82W SOUTH OF CUBA. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES STREAMING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN TO NE OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NICARAGUA. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADES PERSIST AND ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING... ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N71W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING...HOWEVER A FEW WESTWARD MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N W OF 69W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 38N51W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N46W EXTENDING SW TO 23N58W AND BECOMING STATIONARY TO 21N64W TO 21N68W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 30N40W TO 18N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN