000 AXNT20 KNHC 161047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 07N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N17W TO 05N34W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 11W-25W AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N-09W BETWEEN 36W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 26N. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 23N91W TO 18N92W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO MOVE E SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA FROM THE EPAC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF IS ALSO REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W AFFECTING ALSO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-80W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. LATEST SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ISLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN HENCE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EVERY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N71W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS W OF 60W. TO THE E...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 33N56W...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N51W TO 24N66W. THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 24N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 47W- 51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N21W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA