000 AXNT20 KNHC 160520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 03N25W TO 06N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 13W-23W AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 05N-07W BETWEEN 36W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W- 96W. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO MOVE E SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA FROM THE EPAC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF IS ALSO REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-82W AFFECTING ALSO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-80W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HENCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE PULSING TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA EVERY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N69W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS W OF 60W. TO THE E...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 34N57W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO 25N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES WEAK FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 25N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 49W- 55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA