000 AXNT20 KNHC 152320 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N22W TO 4N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N99W...AND A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW GULF AND THE NORTHERN GULF STATES E OF 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 93W-97W...AND INLAND FROM E TEXAS AT 98W TO S GEORGIA AT 83W FROM 30N-33N. AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N- 30N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BETWEEN 27N-30N. FINALLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF THE S COAST OF CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SHIFT E TO THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S COAST OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT FORM TODAY. THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY THEY WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY HOWEVER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO 26N70W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 52W-56W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N21W DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N58W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N48W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA