000 AXNT20 KNHC 151741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 02N25W TO 06N39W TO 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N87W TO A BASE SOUTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 10N89W. MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOTHER MORE ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SW CONUS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND EASTERN TEXAS WITH MOST CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND ACROSS TEXAS...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LATE. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE THE E-SE SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ALONG 87W FROM OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE SOUTH OF HONDURAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC NEAR 10N90W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES RELATIVELY DRIER AND STABLE AIR E OF 70W WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN IMPACT REMAINS THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES GENERATED BY A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN ANCHORS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ALOFT. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE ISLAND...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N59W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 25N52W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N57W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 32N57W THEN SW TO 28N65W BECOMING STATIONARY WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N59W SW TO 22N63W. MOST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 50W-59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 59W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN