000 AXNT20 KNHC 140600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 5N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 06N36W TO 03N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OFF THE NE US COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS TX. THESE TROUGHS SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN FL TO APALACHICOLA BAY NEAR 30N84W. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST...TO JUST INLAND OVER MS. CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND TROUGHING OVER WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 86. E SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVERS THE NE GULF. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND A 1004 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 74W AND 82W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N78W TO 31N80W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO N FL NEAR 30N82W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS E OF 60W OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 32N. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO