000 AXNT20 KNHC 132309 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING DURING THE NIGHT. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W TO 5N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N26W TO 5N33W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AT 30N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...AND MOST OF THE S COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER LOUISIANA...S TEXAS...AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEAR GALE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. A BRIEF GALE IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAKEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S COAST OF CUBA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...E PANAMA...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 29N-31N W OF 80W DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N48W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-35N BETWEEN 20W-80W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 66W-69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 30N78W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA