000 AXNT20 KNHC 131027 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W...AND ALSO FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA REGION WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNED AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING DURING THE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 05N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. VARIABLE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE FARTHER INLAND. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES THROUGH TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OVER GEORGIA...AND THE UPPER LOW OVER CUBA...ENHANCES DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN PREVAILING WINDS AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC...ONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE OTHER NEAR 26N67W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 63W AND 81W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N51W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST WITH CONVECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO