000 AXNT20 KNHC 122342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-12.5N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING DURING THE NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 6N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 6N18W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 19N- 24N W OF 96W. A SMALL 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA COASTS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 81W. OUTSIDE OF THE NE GULF...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 100W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TEXAS FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK NORTH TO CENTRAL TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAKEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NW HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND S OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT THE GALE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N54W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-35N BETWEEN 20W- 80W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-55W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA