000 AXNT20 KNHC 102334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN... THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT RESUMED IN THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THIS PATTERN WAS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS. DUE TO THIS...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING N OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10-15 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N16W TO 08N19W TO 07N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N23W TO 06N35W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF REGION. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. AN ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THIS WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENHANCED THE WINDS AND SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL- TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THEIR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER-LEVEL NE FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 74W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-81W WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA MAINLY N OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ...HISPANIOLA... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ISLAND. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 35N54W IS KEEPING THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. TO THE E...A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N33W EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N36W TO 25N44W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES WEAK EXTENDING TO 27N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC NE OF THE FRONT. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS AFRICAN DUST REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING DRY/HAZY CONDITIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA