000 AXNT20 KNHC 101158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ANA... ANA IS INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. AT 1200 UTC...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 34.0N 78.9W OR ABOUT 13 NW OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANA MADE LANDFALL AT 10/1000 UTC MIDWAY BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE S QUADRANT AND INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN... THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN 71W-77W WILL EXPIRE SHORTLY. THE GALE WARNING WILL RESUME TONIGHT WITH THE GALE WINDS CONTINUING TO PULSE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W ALONG 13N20W 8N21W TO 6N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N24W 3N43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN 9W-13W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W...WITHIN 90 NM S AND 45 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N93W TO 18N94W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28W W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND REDEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVERY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W OF T.S. ANA THROUGH 32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 10N50W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 63W-74W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 28N IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N32W ALONG 29N41W TO 28N49W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N55W. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W ALONG 24N44W TO 29N72W. T.S. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INLAND TO THE N THEN TURN TO THE NE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW/GR