000 AXNT20 KNHC 100558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ANA... TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 33.6N 78.5W AT 10/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE WITH BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 31N-35W W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N-14N BETWEEN 71W-77W AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THESE GALE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N20W TO 6N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N26W 3N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N16W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS IN THE W ATLC. A WEAK DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN EXTENDING ALONG 92W FROM 18N-22N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVERY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE NOW DISSIPATED WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W OF T.S. ANA THROUGH 32N74W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 11N51W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT E OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 21N-25N BETWEEN 63W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH N OF 30N IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W ALONG 28N46W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF THE FRONT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N31W TO 21N50W THEN NARROWS TO 29N72W. T.S. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY N-NW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW