000 AXNT20 KNHC 091804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ANA... TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.7N 78.1W AT 09/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 74 NM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 76W-79W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 72W-76.5W STARTING SUN NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MON MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 10N20W TO 5N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 25W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N86W. 10-20 SE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W ...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BUILD OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE TEXAS COAST...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W- 78W. LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER PUERTO RICO...AND N COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BUILD OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY STABLE AIR ALOFT PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ANA IS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVING SLOWLY NW. SEE ABOVE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 31N50W TO BEYOND 32N60W MOVING ESE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N33W TO 25N43W TO 31N63W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA