000 AXNT20 KNHC 091204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM ANA... SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA TRANSITIONED TO TROPICAL STORM ANA AT 09/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.6N 77.8W AT 09/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 100 NM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 87 NM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MOVING N-NW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER OVER THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE CENTER INCLUDING THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATCMPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTING SUN NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE EACH NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 5N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W 2N40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES T.S. ANA EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS IN THE W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 92W-96W TO INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA/E TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE EACH EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE EACH NIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA STARTING SUN THROUGH MID WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THEN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TO GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE MID WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES T.S. ANA EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N21W ALONG 28N33W TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N52W TO 30N60W. T.S. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY N-NW AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE E IN THE WAKE OF ANA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW