000
AXNT20 KNHC 082317
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
                                         
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED 
NEAR 31.7N 77.4W OR ABOUT 143 NM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH 
CAROLINA. ANA REMAINS STATIONARY...WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BE 40 KT WITH GUSTS OF 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                    
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N20W TO 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N 
BETWEEN 24W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 30N87W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE W GULF FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EPAC. UPPER-
LEVEL NW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH 
SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR SIMILAR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            

LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE 
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-77W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
THAT SUPPORTS THE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA EXTENDS ITS AXIS S ALONG 
80W REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS MAINLY W OF 
74W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC E 
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
 
...HISPANIOLA... 
                                       
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY AND STABLE 
AIRMASS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THESE 
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           

ASIDE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IMPACTING THE W ATLANTIC N 
OF 30N (SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
INFORMATION)...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ELONGATED 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH 
THAT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 70W TO 10W. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHEN A COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE S OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-50W WITH CONVECTION.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA