000 AXNT20 KNHC 081200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5W 77.5W AT 07/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 148 NM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 04N19W TO 04N23W TO 02N27W TO 02N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 20N96W TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEAR 32N91W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MOST OF THE BASIN WHICH REMAINS DRY AND STABLE PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N86W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 79W/80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING AS WELL AS TO THE EAST AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. THE RESULT AT THE SURFACE IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 82W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA IMPACTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC E OF 70W...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N39W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN