000 AXNT20 KNHC 072356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A NEAR STATIONARY 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N77W AT 07/1800 UTC BASED ON THE INFORMATION FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 75W. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ANY INCREASE WOULD RESULT IN FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS AN HIGH CHANCE OF SUBTROPICAL FORMATION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 2N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR W ATLC THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS MEXICO TO TEXAS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH OVER NW GEORGIA INTO THE GULF TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N84W COVERING THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVER LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI...THERE ARE NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE EVENINGS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W TO ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 20N86W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMBINING WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA E OF 83W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI THEN EXPAND WESTWARD FRI NIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N70W OVER HISPANIOLA TO 19N71W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL HAITI WHILE SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OR MEXICO AND W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 73W. THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO BEYOND 32N70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 66W-71W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST...CENTRAL AND INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N48W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W TO 24N29W. THE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL DRIFT N-NW THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW