000 AXNT20 KNHC 030003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW TO 05N20W TO 04N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 06N BETWEEN 09W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE STRAITS AND THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF...WITH A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF NEAR 28N93W. RIDGING SUPPORTS NE TO E WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF WHERE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG DEEP LAYER DRY AIR FAVOR FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN CUBA NEAR 20N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W AND 87W...INCLUDING CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHILE NORTHERLY WIND OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING LEAVING AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. ...HISPANIOLA... CLOUDY SKIES ARE ACROSS HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN. AS THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N ATLC ALONG 30N64W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN CUBA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE W AND E OF THE FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR