000
AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                    
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 
05N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W 
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 
50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF FROM 
NEAR 25N81W TO 24N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT WEST OF 83W. RIDGING 
EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF...WITH A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF 
NEAR 28N93W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND OVER 
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND 
CUBA..AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N77W TO 15N85W. 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT...AND 
250 NM NW OF THE FRONT. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SOUTHEAST OF THE 
FRONT...TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. 
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT 
PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF 
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...
                        
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND 
TODAY. A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CUBA MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED 
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER HAITI LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. 
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
  
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE MID ATLANTIC US COAST 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 
31N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. NO 
CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THIS PORTION 
OF THE ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC 
NEAR 31N54W TO 25N70W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. SHOWERS AND 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
23N41W SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE TROPICAL 
NORTHERN ATLC EAST OF 50W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT 
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE 
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO