000
AXNT20 KNHC 020541
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                    
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
6N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
6N21W TO 0N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-7N BETWEEN 35W-52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
                                            
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 
27N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W VOID OF 
CONVECTION. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. A SMALL 
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W WITH FAIR 
WEATHER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR 
PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF 
TAMPICO...BUT NOT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE ENTIRELY IN THE ATLANTIC.  

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AS OF 0300 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 
21N77W TO E HONDURAS AT 15N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N 
BETWEEN 85W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER COSTA RICA. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...
                                                 
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS OVER E CUBA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
  
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 27N80W VOID OF CONVECTION. FURTHER E...A 
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N70W TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AT 21N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N46W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N32W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH 
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA