000 AXNT20 KNHC 012315 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 02N33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL GULF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THESE AREAS. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY W OF 89W WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E GULF WATERS WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W TO 16N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING SW REACHING THE AREA THAT PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N62W SUPPORT DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRESSURES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATEROMETER DATA W OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING THEN DISSIPATE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N73W EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N81W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N81W TO 29N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N78W TO 28N63W. FROM THIS POINT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT CONNECTING TO A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 60W-67W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A STATIONARY 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 23N40W AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA