000 AXNT20 KNHC 011743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 02N29W TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 28W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SW FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WEST ALONG 30N TO GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT REMAINS DRY WITH DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY LOWER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS AN OVERALL DRYING TREND PERSISTS...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 23N86W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W AND IS ANCHORED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THIS AREA WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N W OF 78W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W SW TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING. MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ON SUNDAY INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS CENTERED NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N93W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CENTERED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 70W. A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N74W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THIS FRONT REMAINS DRY WITH ONLY LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE OTHER LOW IS 1001 MB CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. BETWEEN THESE TWO COLD FRONTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N71W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. A STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NE TO NEAR 30N65W THEN EAST-NORTHEAST TO BEYOND 34N33W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N80W TO 31N60W TO 33N40W TO BEYOND 36N28W. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE 1001 MB LOW. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 28N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N16W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO 20N50W TO NEAR HISPANIOLA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN