000 AXNT20 KNHC 011045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N17W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N25W 3N37W 2N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN 11W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 21W-26W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 28W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE REMNANT COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF SE OF LINE FROM 25N80W TO 24N84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA. WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE W GULF A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N95W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF LINE FROM 20N91W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N66W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 18N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO 16N83W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-81W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING. MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ON SUN INCREASING THE CHANCES OF A PASSING SHOWER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W TO 31N58W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM FRONT TO A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 32N67W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ALONG 28N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-30N W OF 54W TO THE W ATLC COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 27N71W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR MADIERA ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N20W ALONG 24N40W 21N60W TO 20N71W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL GET A REINFORCEMENT FROM ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N63W ALONG 26N65W TO E CUBA SAT AND BECOME DIFFUSE SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS SUN AND MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW