000 AXNT20 KNHC 302323 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 18W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AREA FOCUSED ON A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN. WITH THESE...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN GULF MAINLY S OF 26N. TO THE W...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 21N97W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE W PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM 19N88W TO 22N84W. A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 18N85W...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO IT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 23N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 80W-85W. TO THE E... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THAT KEEPS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS AREA IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC. A LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONT WHILE THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES EXCEPT S OF 18N BETWEEN 65W-71W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. DESPITE THAT...CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF IT. THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO 22N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 69W-79W. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM 31N67W TO 30N59W...THEN IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO 31N56W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 29N BETWEEN 52W-61W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A BROAD 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N20W EXTENDS ITS RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN US ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA