000 AXNT20 KNHC 301033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N15W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W 3N33W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-23W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-37W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-45W...AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN TURNS W TO OVER TEXAS. THE REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND NAPLES ALONG 24N84W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR CANCUN MEXICO THEN INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA BAY TO 28N86W. DENSE LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH JUST INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SMOKE ACROSS THE SE GULF. THE FRONT WILL WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE W TODAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL PANAMA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR CANCUN MEXICO THEN INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N85W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING BUT NO RAIN IS INDICATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 28N57W 28N63W TO 29N69W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM FRONT TO A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 31N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 1003 MB LOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-27N W OF 73W TO OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1023 MB HIGH N OF MADIERA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N22W ALONG 25N35W TO 19N67W. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FROM NEAR 32N57W ALONG 27N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW