000 AXNT20 KNHC 300529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N24W 2N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN TURNS W TO OVER TEXAS. THE REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND TAMPA BAY ALONG 24N85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF PENSACOLA. DENSE LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N W OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH A 1019 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO MEXICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 82W. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SMOKE ACROSS THE SE GULF E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND IS ANCHORED JUST S OF PANAMA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 18N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 19N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N W OF 86W. BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVERNIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS THU WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT BUT NO RAIN IS INDICATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 28N58W 27N67W TO 28N71W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM FRONT TO A 1003 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM THIS LOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 43W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-26N W OF 72W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF MADIERA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N22W ALONG 24N40W TO 20N67W. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N77W TO S FLORIDA THEN FROM NEAR 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT AND FROM 32N57W ALONG 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N55W ALONG 26N65W TO E CUBA SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW