000 AXNT20 KNHC 292333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO 03N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N15W TO 02N32W TO 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AT WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE E GULF. THE 1003 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N80W EXTENDING ITS COLD FRONT SW REACHING THE E GULF FROM 29N83W TO 24N87W TO 19N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N83W TO 21N87W THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY S OF 25N AND E OF 84W. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW GULF. THIS SAME AREA IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EPAC DUE TO A SW FLOW ALOFT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS BASIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N76W. THIS AIRMASS IS TRANSPORTING SAHARAN DUST TO THE AREA AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY E OF 80W. TO THE W OF 80W...MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF...FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 21N87W TO 17N85W. AGRICULTURAL BURNING IS STILL NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS HONDURAS AND SMOKE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF CUBA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 80W EXCEPT S OF 16N BETWEEN 69W-73W WHERE FRESH TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION DISSIPATING THE SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NW WINDS ALOFT MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N80W. WHILE ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO...ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N75W TO 27N69W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO 28N59W TO 31N46W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED N OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N69W TO 31N55W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 46W- 76W. TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 74W- 82W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 36N15W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WHILE MOVING NE WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL FOLLOW THE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA