000 AXNT20 KNHC 282324 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S OKLAHOMA SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW REACHING 24N92W TO 22N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDING N FROM THIS LOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO A FEATURE FROM THIS LOW...EXTENDING E REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS E OF 89W SUPPORTING AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 85W-89W AND E OF 82W BETWEEN 23N- 25N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N88W TO 21N92W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. CURRENT AGRICULTURAL FIRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SOURCES OF SMOKE ACROSS THE SW GULF...MAINLY S OF 24N. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 25N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 25N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SMOKE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TRANSPORTING SAHARAN DUST INTO THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF SMOKE OBSERVED IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W ORIGINATED BY THE AGRICULTURAL FIRES BURNING ACROSS HONDURAS. GENTLE SE TRADES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 12N WHERE A SLIGHT FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE SMOKE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY EXTENDS ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N80W TO 26N73W AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N55W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 66W-80W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N79W TO 23N78W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED 34N20W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH ITS COLD FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA