000 AXNT20 KNHC 240526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-6W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 6W- 19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH A SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER MEXICO AND ARE SPREADING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N-28N W OF 95W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF 27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND STALL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF. HONDURAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WINDING DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MOST OF HAITI TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC DIPS S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 29N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF THE W ATLC AND IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W 31N44W TO 30N50W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N54W 27N62W 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 25N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF THE FRONT NEAR 20N66W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN W-SW ALONG 20N36W TO 16N50W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N19W ALONG 26N28W TO 22N39W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N31W AND 25N36W. CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING AND QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES SAT AND SAT NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW