000
AXNT20 KNHC 231019
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 01N23W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 01S27W TO 04S38W. 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 04N-06S BETWEEN 12W-37W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...     

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N95W TO 
24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC 
EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED    
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS 
ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 
26N AND W OF 94W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY 
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. A 
1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W. 
BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO 
GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE 
FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE 
FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO 
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE 
OF THE FRONT. THE FOG OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS  
MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
THROUGH FRIDAY.
                              
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 13N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM 
11N66W TO 15N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE 
AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA 
COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT 
LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS 
ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO 
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY 
AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF 
INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL. 
THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT 
VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...                                                    

A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N 
OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 
24N80W TO 31N63W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO 
30N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES 
MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 49W-62W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 27N75W. A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N 
OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N23W TO 
24N38W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO 
BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC 
ENHANCING CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA