000 AXNT20 KNHC 230520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N22W. THE ITCZ RESUMES NEAR 00N29W TO 02S45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N- 07N AND W 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 29N96W TO 24N80W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC EXTENDS E REACHING THE GULF SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-93W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 90W. ALSO...AGRICULTURAL SMOKE IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 03-05 NM S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-96W. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND HENCE MOVE N WITH CONVECTION. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE MORNING. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LOCATED NEAR 14N77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EAST PART OF THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM 11N68W TO 16N61W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE AREA COVERED BY THE FEATURES DESCRIBED ABOVE. TO THE N...A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THIS AREA IS ALSO IMPACTED BY AGRICULTURAL SMOKE THAT IS SPREADING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 03-05 NM. THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL. THE SMOKE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY. HISPANIOLA... A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 24N80W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO 30N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-67W. A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 28N75W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY TWO SURFACE HIGH CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 27N43W AND 27N22W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT ALONG 31N24W TO 25N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO BEGIN WEAKENING. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA