000 AXNT20 KNHC 230005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S44W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 07S TO 01N W OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NW TO 26N90W TO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SE GULF AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT...THUS SHIFTING THE CONVECTION TO THE N-NE GULF DURING THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SPREADS ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDS TO JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS GENERATED BY THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND THE TROUGH SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. BESIDES A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING SHOWERS...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE ISLAND...HOWEVER CURRENTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT TO MOVE N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA FRIDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF MICHIGAN EXTENDS A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC...THUS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N62W SW TO 26N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W AND 71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC S OF THE FRONT W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N25W SW TO 24N40W WHERE IT STALLS AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU MORNING LEAVING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC FRIDAY MORNING ENHANCING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR