000 AXNT20 KNHC 221759 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 05N BETWEEN 11W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE CROSSING SOUTH FL AND OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO 26N91W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 23N83W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FL PENINSULA AND 89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE TX COAST FROM 26N TO 28N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FROM 24N91W TO 19N93W. NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER TX WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD BRING AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE...FAIR WEATHER IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... MAINLY DAYTIME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N63W TO 27N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO SOUTH FL NEAR 26N80W. A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N74W...OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N46W...AND ANOTHER HIGH OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 33N13W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION AS A COLD FRONT NEAR 32N26W AND EXTENDS TO 25N41W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 27N51W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG AND SE OF THE WESTERNMOST FRONTAL SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO