000 AXNT20 KNHC 221017 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N AND E OF 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC EXTENDS E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE SW GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 24N89W TO 18N90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AT AROUND 50 NM FROM THE BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N93W TO 26N82W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE GULF CENTERED NEAR 29N85W. LOOKING S OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 23N84W TO 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-81W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N 27N AND E OF 90W WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND LATER DISSIPATE. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL HIGH IS DEVELOPING S OF CUBA NEAR 17N80W EXTENDING ITS RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA AND THE SW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ITS AXIS FROM 11N74W TO 18N62W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-74W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 26N78W TO 31N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 24N80W TO 25N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-80W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N57W TO 27N39W AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N28W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE LOCATED NEAR 24N42W AND THE OTHER NEAR 33N16W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA