000 AXNT20 KNHC 220528 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N AND E OF 16W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-26W AND 35W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC EXTENDS ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE SW GULF. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N97W TO 26N90W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 27N82W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N-26N AND W OF 95W...AND FROM 26N-28N AND E OF 84W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE GULF CENTERED NEAR 30N89W. TO THE S OF THE FRONTS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 25N89W TO 25N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE COAST OF MEXICO REACHING THE SW GULF WATERS FROM 19N-21N AND W OF 92W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEVELOPING N 27N AND E OF 90W WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE BASIN UNTIL DISSIPATION. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL HIGH IS DEVELOPING S OF CUBA NEAR 18N80W EXTENDING ITS RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA AND THE SW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ITS AXIS FROM 13N73W TO 19N62W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-74W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 27N80W TO 31N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N80W TO 27N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 71W-80W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N56W TO 28N39W AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N32W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE LOCATED NEAR 23N43W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA