000 AXNT20 KNHC 201739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N12W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO 00N38W TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 04N BETWEEN 21W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE N GULF NEAR 29N92W TO 27N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO 27N90W TO 25N95W. A DISORGANIZED LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE W FLORIDA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROUGH VOID OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 24N91W TO 19N92W. OTHER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N93W TO 25N98W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF...FROM S TEXAS/N MEXICO TO CENTRAL FL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE RESIDES OVER COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES DOMINATE THE BASIN. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EXPECTED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE SE US IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFFSHORE OF FL FROM 26N TO 31N W OF 74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N45W TO 28N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 31N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 39N26W HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO ANOTHER HIGH OF 1020 MB NEAR 23N48W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 5N AND S OF 32N FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO