000
AXNT20 KNHC 201019
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 
04N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 02S29W TO THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-
07S BETWEEN 23W-48W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING 
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FRONT THE EPAC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A 
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS APPROACHING THE 
NORTHERN GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N96W TO 
30N93W SUPPORTING CONVECTION N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE GOES-
R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING 
FOG OVER THE W GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 94W. TO THE S...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 24N89W TO 
19N91W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AT 
THIS MOMENT. A WEAK E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS 
W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT 
FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. THE FOG OVER THE W GULF WILL 
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. 
                                
CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW 
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE PAIRED WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE 
TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT 
TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 
COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER 
REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...
                 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N79W TO 
31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N AND W OF 74W. 
TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC. IT IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N69W TO 27N64W. FROM 
THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING TO 31N50W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 42W-52W. A BROAD 
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N26W EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BUT 
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA