000 AXNT20 KNHC 200520 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 05S BETWEEN 32W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FRONT THE EPAC MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING CONVECTION N OF 27N AND W OF 89W. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING FOG OVER THE W GULF N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. TO THE E...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 84W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 21N88W TO 18N92W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. A WEAK E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SQUALL LINE E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH CONVECTION. THE FOG OVER THE W GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE E GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PAIRED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REACHING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N81W TO 33N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N AND W OF 76W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N70W TO 31N55W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W- 53W. A BROAD 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N29W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SQUALL LINE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC BUT CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA