000 AXNT20 KNHC 171736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N19W 1N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 16W-32W AND FROM 1N-3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE TO TAMPA BAY WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 29N87W ALONG 27N91W TO 27N94W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL EXIT BY SAT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO E PANAMA/COLOMBIA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...SW HAITI...AND JAMAICA. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER SW HAITI. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD TODAY AND SAT. HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUN AFTERNOON/ EVENING COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCE SHOWERS OVER GREATER PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W ALONG 30N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N46W TO 27N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W THEN NE ALONG 31N74W TO THE SAME 1015 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-31W BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N60W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N56W TO 22N62W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC AND SE OF THE FRONT WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N24W 26N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE E ATLC TODAY THROUGH SAT. THE W ATLC LOW WILL CONTINUE NE TODAY LIFTING THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT NE AS A WARM FRONT AND DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT W OF THE LOW TO THE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THAT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG 27N ON SUN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW