000 AXNT20 KNHC 161745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N16W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA WITH NEAR ZONAL W-SW FLOW OVER THE NE GULF. THIS IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC TO OVER THE NE FLORIDA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA BAY INTO THE GULF TO 24N76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF 27N87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A THIRD WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING ALONG 94W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W-92W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO FREEPORT TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND THEN WILL SHIFT W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THEN MOVE NW ACROSS SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAITI...AND JAMAICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER HAITI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TO OVER PUERTO RICO BY FRI. THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT E TO OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/1500 UTC ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W ALONG 30N62W TO 30N7W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N77W. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N79W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF FLORIDA. A MID LEVEL LOW IS NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N60W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N57W ALONG 24N60W TO 21N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS SE OF THE FRONT AND IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 26N66W AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 24N44W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N55W ALONG 28N65W TO THE CAROLINAS BY FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DRIFTING N OUT OF AREA EARLY SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN MORE THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW