000
AXNT20 KNHC 161041
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W SW 
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR 
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 05N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 07N W OF 34W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS 
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO N OF 25N. CONVECTION ON THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO 
26N95W TO 21N97W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED 
BY A HIGH NW OF VERMONT AND ANOTHER HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC 
EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE 
WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT. SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES 
ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING 
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE 
TROUGHING AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.
                                           
CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE 
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF 
14N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL 
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE 
MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING 
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N 
OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL 
WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF A SHORT-WAVE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES 
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT 
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST 
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 
JACKSONVILLE WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-SE ALONG 30N72W 
TO 31N64W. THESE FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 74W IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THREE SURFACE 
TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ALL LACKING CONVECTION. THE 
FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO 24N59W. THE SECOND TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 29N44W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 26N36W TO 
21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR