000
AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW 
TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR 
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 07N E OF 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 08N W OF 33W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND THE EPAC WATERS 
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND 
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
ALONG 29N91W TO 26N95W TO 22N98W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF 
THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS S-SW ACROSS 
THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT. 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT DOMINATES. 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE N-NW GULF WHERE SURFACE TROUGHING AND 
SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL.
                                           
CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE 
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF 
13N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL 
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 
20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS 
THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
HISPANIOLA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
ON COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS 
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE OVER THE ISLAND COINCIDING WITH PATCHES 
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTING 
CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ISLAND WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT EXTENDING TO ADJACENT 
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT 
WATERS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO 30N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TO WEST 
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW N 
ATLC ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 30N76W SW TO GRAND BAHAMA. 
TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...BOTH LACKING 
CONVECTION. THE FIRST TROUGH IS REMNANTS OF A FORMER STATIONARY 
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N39W TO 26N49W. THE SECOND TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 21N39W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES 
ELSEWHERE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF 
DISCUSSION.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR