000
AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW 
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N32W TO 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N 
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W...AND FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND 
50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER 
LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N96W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 
98W. WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NORTHERLY BETWEEN 
10 AND 15 KT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH. 
EAST OF THESE TWO FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC HAS AN 
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN 
GULF. THIS PROVIDES S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS 
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...REMNANT 
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES 
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. 
                                           
CARIBBEAN SEA... 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WITH A PERIPHERY OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT 
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AN AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS 
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND AN AREA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT 
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. 
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE OCCURRING IN 
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...
                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE FL COAST FROM 31N79W TO 
28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLC SPLITS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR 
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N39W TO 29N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 29N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N44W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM 
OF THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER 
TROUGH THAT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N37W TO 
23N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO