000 AXNT20 KNHC 150627 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 CORRECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW TO 01N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N E OF 22W AND FROM 06S TO 06N W OF 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KANSAS TO A BASE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT A 1014 MB LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N93W SW TO 25N97W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N92W TO 22N95W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM 29N84W SW TO 25N86W TO 19N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NEAR 83W ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS PROVIDE STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHERE SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE BASIN-WIDE. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE BY WED MORNING LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W GULF WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE W AND SW BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SLIGHLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 66W AND 79W...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HAITI...THUS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS TO INCLUDE THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER ISLAND AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS ENTER THE ISLAND TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N48W TO A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 27N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 260 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEHWHERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR