000 AXNT20 KNHC 142312 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-04S BETWEEN 32W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW GULF ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 25N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N AND W OF 94W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N90W TO 24N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND PUSHING OFFSHORE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS W OF 97W BETWEEN 19N- 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 40N51W EXTENDS ITS AXIS SW REACHING THE E GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER MAINLY E OF 86W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF THE COLD FRONT...W OF 94W...WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW GULF. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS THAT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADES SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE SW SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED OVER OUR AREA AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N47W TO A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 43W-59W. TO THE E...A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N44W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS NEAR 32N32W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN THE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 28N39W TO 25N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA