000 AXNT20 KNHC 141756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W SW TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 03N BETWEEN 07W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 42N51W EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF...PROVIDING SE SURFACE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN...A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE EXTREME NW GULF NEAR 29N96W TO 27N98W. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRECEEDS THE FRONT BY ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND THE S TEXAS COAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N91W TO 18N95W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW AND IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC SUPPORTS GENERALLY EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH LOCALIZED WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE N COASTS OF HONDURAS AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE ARE OCCURRING MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 80W INCLUDING JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 30N65W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N48W TO 29N60W TO 29N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 61W. FARTHER EAST...A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N38W TO 24N35W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MOROCCO AND EXTENDS FROM 31N12W TO 26N17W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE E US COAST WEDNESDAY NEAR 30N WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO