000 AXNT20 KNHC 141050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW TO 04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT SW TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 41N51W EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA SW TO LOUISIANA TO TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 29N W OF 91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS WHILE FOG IS REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 88W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN PROVIDES STABILITY...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE SW BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1009 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 64W AND 81W...INCREASING UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS BEING FAVORED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N50W TO 29N58W TO 29N69W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. ON THE NE ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N12W SW TO 22N23W TO 22N31W...TRANSITIONING THEN INTO A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE FRONT TAIL ALONG 29N37W TO 25N38W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WED MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR