000 AXNT20 KNHC 140604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W SW TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT SW TO 01S31W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 230 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC NEAR 38N57W EXTENDS AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM PENNSYLVANIA SW TO TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WHILE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ITCZ. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF...WITHIN 75 NM OF THE NW CUBA COASTLINE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN PROVIDES STABILITY...THUS RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE SW BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 64W AND 80W...INCREASING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER SW CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND ON THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROUGHINESS ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS HAITI AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS BEING FAVORED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N52W TO 29N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N70W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE JUST S OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 25N68W. FARTHER EAST THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N59W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W. ON THE NE ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N16W SW TO 22N27W TO 24N32W. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WED MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR