000
AXNT20 KNHC 132331
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT MON APR 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 
00N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40N. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 20W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
                                            
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF 28N AND E OF 
90W WITH A SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N89W TO 28N89W. UPPER 
LEVEL SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF WHICH IS BRINGING 
MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 92W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW 
IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO DISSIPATE 
OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF 
ENHANCING CONVECTION.
         
CARIBBEAN SEA... 
                                               
UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. 
WITH THIS...THE AREA REMAINS DRY AND STABLE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF MODERATE 
TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 
14N BETWEEN 70W-72W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...
                                           
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND MAINLY DUE TO 
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. 
SIMILAR ACTIVITY WILL BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                              
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC THAT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 30N58W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT 
INTO THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES N OF 27N AND W OF 
57W. S OF THESE FEATURES...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS PREVAIL.... 
THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO 26N69W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS 
FROM 28N59W TO 25N60W. TO THE E...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N47W. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW N 
OF OUR AREA AFFECTING THE E ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A WEAK 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N38W TO 24N26W THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A 
WEAK COLD FRONT TO 31N15W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED 
TO THESE BOUNDARIES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO BECOME 
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONTS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA