000 AXNT20 KNHC 131030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W SW TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO 01N26W...ALONG THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 03N W OF 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF...THUS PROVIDING RETURN WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH ALONG A ZONE OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. ON THE NW GULF...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM SE TEXAS NEAR 29N94W TO 25N95W. A 1008 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG DIFFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 95W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 90W. AREAS OF DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN THROUGH WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN AND SE CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ON THE SW BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN...THUS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 64W AND 80W...INCREASING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH ALONG A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BASIN MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WITH THE TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND ALONG WITH LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS ARE OF 20 TO 25 KT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 30N58W SW TO 29N65W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N73W TO 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ON THE TAIL OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N47W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N58W TO 21N61W AND A SECOND TROUGH FROM 27N66W TO 23N69W WITH NO CONVECTION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N19W SW TO 26N26W TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N35W TO 27N40W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR